A lot of people have done predictions about future of Cloud Computing in 2012 and beyond. Here I attempt to summarize and analyze some of these predictions. During 9th Cloud Expo many predictions about cloud computing were made. Let us have a look at what some of them have to say.
Lauren C. States (VP & CTO, Cloud Computing & Growth Initiatives, IBM) expected a rise in service providers due to infrastructure costs not being an issue anymore. This is probably quite true that we will see lot of new cloud providers, but with lot of providers being available and the cost of cloud instances dropping (it has already started to drop) I see the quality of service provided becoming the key factor like mobile service providers today. She also mentioned that people will be using any device any where to access data and services. We already see it happening as the mobile and tablet devices are increasing tremendously. This also increases reliance on cloud based services and storage, which requires ease and speed of access. This will require upgrade to exiting network infrastructure so that it is not a bottleneck. She also raised concerns about security of cloud environments and I agree that with so many people using cloud services, security will need to be strengthened. The industry will make changes and cope with increased demand, I don’t see any major threats, but I do see increase in hybrid cloud environments to increase redundancy in enterprises. Lastly she mentioned convergence of social, mobile and cloud environments, which i do see happening due to interdependencies of these areas. She also mentioned that providers will use this convergence model to do real-time analytics on big data. I do agree there is a gap in effective real-time analysis of data happening over the cloud computing environments, but real-time analysis is difficult to do in traditional environments unless effective algorithms are written that manage all the variability of data in these circumstances. So although I see progress being made in real-time data analytics in hybrid cloud models, I don’t see it happening in a big way in 2012.
Peter Coffee (VP and Head of Platform Research at Salesforce.com) expects a surge in data coming from social networks and more and more companies providing social media analytics. I do see this happening a lot in future, as social networking tools (like twitter and yammer) become part of our life inside and outside organizations. He also points to accelerating tablet use that will definitely lead to more frequent use of social and cloud environments. Peter also mentioned File-based models of collaboration, which will make file location irrelevant. We already see it happening in almost all of cloud storage environments and it will increase further to provide a better secure cloud based file system that will be used consistently across all providers like traditional file systems. Due to data privacy and sovereignty issues I do see hybrid cloud models becoming more economical and promoted further.
Krishnan Subramanian (Industry Analyst covering Cloud Computing & Open Source) sees Platform as a Service (PaaS) becoming the future of cloud computing in 2012 and beyond. We are already seeing that happening and Gartner recently discussed idea of iPaaS and provided a reference model for it (I will discuss it in a separate blog post). He also sees Federated clouds talking off and more cloud brokerage services being developed. I do see both these happening to help enterprise cloud computing customers in better navigating the landscape. Like others he also sees convergence of cloud, mobile and social apps. Lastly he is hoping for greater cloud computing adoption in Asia-Pacific especially in India and China. This is an obvious one and will happen given large of IT services being provided from this region these days.
Brian Gracely (Director of Solutions at EMC) also sees PaaS being promoted quite a lot in future. He also predicts that any PaaS provider, whoever can combine Java and .NET into an integrated PaaS platform, with options for modern web languages, will take a significant lead with developers. Microsoft has already started doing that with their Windows Azure Platform by allowing developers to use multiple programming languages (like Java and PHP) on it and I expect to strengthen their position further in 2012. He also mentions that security will replace availability issues for cloud environments, which is quite true. I also agree with that good and bad press about cloud computing will only increase its awareness to people.
Last but not least I will discuss comments about future of cloud computing from two of my friends on social networks – William Toll and Scott Stewart. William Toll (VP, Marketing at Yottaa, Inc.) predicts that infrastructure providers will provide pre-packaged private cloud deployment platforms. While I do see this happen in future, I would hope that it extends to PaaS providers like Microsoft. Microsoft should be able to extend customized pre-packaged Windows Azure Appliance for variety of environments in organizations running private cloud. As mentioned before he also predicts that Data Analysis and Mining of Big Data will increase in future. He also mentioned an interesting point here. Data integration platforms need to expand their capability to pull data from across environments providing next generation of information infrastructure in which companies can leverage unstructured text and social media data seamlessly and provide analytics on the integrated data. I have worked in the Data Integration space for last decade and I still agree that work still needs to be done on using data semantics to achieve these objectives. He agrees that 2012 will see PaaS deriving cloud computing. He predicts that Independent Software Vendors will transition apps directly to PaaS bypassing infrastructure. I agree this is happen especially this will happen aggressively in conjunction to pre-packaged PaaS meeting certain customer requirements. Lastly, he mentions that mobile environments will drive data portability and synchronization projects and all the data will be managed in cloud storage. I agree with this observation completely as this will be result of convergence of social media with mobile environments provided by tablets as others have observed.
Scott Stewart (Research Director at Longhaus Pty Ltd) suggests that as cloud Service management, cloud service assurance and cloud security become key in future the whole IT service management will need to be provide as a service. As cloudification will settle and cloud services will have become common in enterprises, people will concentrate on refining internal and external business processes to take advantage of cloud efficiently. I agree with his nest observation that cloud-based smartphone wallet will be used more often and information personalization will start to be key for commerce. This will increase the demand of interactive mobile PaaS environments using cameras and touch and gestures. It will be another application that will make PaaS drive cloud computing in future. Lastly one of the interesting points he mentioned is that Desktop as a Service will become more popular. Well this will be true for enterprises that are running all their apps from cloud, as this provide them with an opportunity to run the complete standard operating environment from cloud. This will also require regular maintenance, backups and redundancy integrated in the cloud platform that is providing the solution.
These are some of the key discussion points in the article; there are many more that I have not covered. So it will a great read for anyone involved in cloud computing. In summary the key areas driving the future for cloud computing are: Platform as a Service, Mobile Environments, Social Media, Data Integration, Data Analytics, Real-Time Data, Hybrid Cloud, IT as a Service, Desktop as a Service.
The comments in this blog are of my own and do not represent the companies I worked or the companies mentioned in the Blog.